TThe Jasmine Star Show
← All episodes
15 July 2025

How to Master Uncertainty and Move Forward Anyway

2Frameworks
9Insights

Listen

Frameworks in this episode

Insights & moments

The myth-busts, hot takes, explainers, and tools worth keeping.

Hot Take· 1

Hot Take0:09:29

Entrepreneurs are wired for intensity, so experiment with dopamine

Jasmine argues entrepreneurs are wired differently: their brains crave an environment of intensity because it keeps them stimulated and they like solving bigger problems. The implication she draws is counterintuitive. Since dopamine fires when a difficult situation with no obvious answer eventually yields one, founders should deliberately put themselves into uncertain situations rather than avoid them.

  • Entrepreneurial brains crave intensity and stimulation
  • Dopamine fires when an unsolved hard problem resolves
  • Therefore seek uncertainty deliberately, do not avoid it
  • Micro tests are the safe way to run that experiment

“Our brains are craving an environment of intensity.”

Jasmine Star · 0:10:27

“So we must put ourselves in uncertain situations.”

Jasmine Star · 0:10:27
#entrepreneurship#dopamine#risk#mindset

Explainer· 4

Explainer0:01:52

The predictability paradigm: we crave what we rarely get

The speaker's framing is that what humans actually want is predictability, and we expect things to go as planned despite all evidence to the contrary. He calls this the predictability paradigm. His conclusion is that the only certainty available is uncertainty itself, which reframes the question from how to avoid it to how to move through it.

  • We want predictability and expect plans to hold
  • Plans hardly ever go as expected
  • Uncertainty is the only reliable certainty
  • The real question becomes how to choose flow inside it

“And so he calls this the predictability paradigm.”

Jasmine Star · 0:01:52

“the only thing we can be certain about is uncertainty”

Jasmine Star · 0:01:52
#uncertainty#mental-models#planning
Explainer0:02:49

Why fear makes you decide badly: lizard brain vs frontal lobe

The physiological premise underneath the whole episode. Under fear the limbic system, the lizard brain, takes over and impedes clear rational thinking, which is when poor decisions get made. The counterweight is the frontal lobe, and Navy SEALs are described as training specifically to hone that frontal lobe concentration because uncertainty is the only thing their work reliably offers.

  • Humans are driven by the nervous system, not intention
  • The limbic system blocks clear and rational thought
  • The frontal lobe is where control and rational thinking live
  • SEAL training is framed as frontal lobe training

“Our limbic system takes over. So it impedes us from thinking clearly, from thinking rationally.”

Jasmine Star · 0:01:52

“the only thing that a Navy Seal can expect all the time is uncertainty”

Jasmine Star · 0:02:49
#neuroscience#fear#decision-making#composure
Explainer0:03:54

Pandemic vs common cold: why one terrified us and one doesn't

The clearest illustration of why unknown duration, pathway and outcome produce fear. In 2020 nobody knew how long it would last, whether medications or vaccines worked, or what the end state was, and the fear tracked that. A common cold involves the same category of illness but has a known five to seven day duration, a known pathway and a known outcome, so it generates almost no fear at all.

  • Pandemic duration ranged from a week to years
  • The pathway was contested and unclear
  • Outcomes ranged from full recovery to death
  • A cold is bounded on all three, so it does not frighten us

“It was all of these things of uncertainty that drove the fear.”

Jasmine Star · 0:03:54

“the duration of a common cold, but we know it's about 5 to 7 days”

Jasmine Star · 0:04:55
#fear#uncertainty#examples#pandemic
Explainer0:08:36

Running out of dopamine is why people quit

Rather than asking what motivates you, the sharper question offered is what gives you a dopamine high. The stated mechanism is that people abandon activities precisely when those activities stop delivering dopamine, so designing horizons around genuine dopamine sources is what keeps the practice alive. Examples given range from a first kiss to winning a race to simply achieving what you set out to do.

  • Replace 'what motivates me' with 'what gives me a dopamine high'
  • Quitting happens when the dopamine runs out
  • Achieving what you set out to do is itself a dopamine source
  • This question is what SEALs are asked in the darkest moments

“Actually, the better question is what gives me a dopamine high?”

Jasmine Star · 0:07:40

“when we run out of dopamine, mean, we quit the things that we're doing that no longer give us dopamine”

Jasmine Star · 0:08:36
#dopamine#motivation#habits#persistence

Story· 2

Story0:00:00

The Houston conference talk that changed the episode

Jasmine flew to Houston to support her friend Dr Gabrielle Lyon at a conference and ended up blindsided by a speaker she had never heard of. Rich, an author, leadership expert and former Navy SEAL, opened by asking the room what happens when things go wrong. She went on a deep dive on him afterwards and walked away with a concrete set of leader actions.

  • She attended to support a friend, not to learn
  • The speaker is an author, leadership expert and former Navy SEAL
  • His opener was a blunt question about things going wrong
  • She took copious notes from the back of the room

“He had said, what happens when things go wrong?”

Jasmine Star · 0:00:55

“I went on a deep dive of this guy because I walked away having a clear set of actions that I needed to take as…”

Jasmine Star · 0:00:55
#conference#navy-seal#leadership#learning
Story0:08:36

From 400 pounds to ultramarathons, one pair of shoes at a time

A man who weighed over 400 pounds and could not walk out of his house started with a single horizon: buy a pair of running shoes. He celebrated that. The next horizon was putting them on. Then walking to the mailbox. Then the mailbox and around the block. By the time Rich met him he was an ultramarathon runner.

  • First horizon was buying shoes, nothing more
  • Each completed horizon was celebrated before the next was set
  • Steps escalated by tiny increments day by day
  • The proof of keeping your word is what compounds

“So his first horizon was, I'm going to buy a pair of running shoes.”

Jasmine Star · 0:09:29

“It was the small settings of steps, and proving to yourself that you will stay true to yourself, that ultimately led a £400 man to…”

Jasmine Star · 0:09:29
#case-study#micro-goals#transformation#consistency

Takeaway· 2

Takeaway0:07:40

Meaningful horizons are subjective, and that's the point

The second half of the horizons conversation is about sizing. The instruction is explicitly not to go climb Everest but to identify the small steps along the way to the top. Because motivation differs per person, what counts as a meaningful small step is personal, so the question you ask yourself is what actually moves your needle rather than what should.

  • Meaningful horizons are steps in achievement, not summits
  • What counts as small is subjective per person
  • Ask what moves your needle, not what should
  • Every step along the way looks different

“He's saying, what are the small steps along until you reach the top of Everest?”

Jasmine Star · 0:07:40

“Small steps, looks different every step along the way.”

Jasmine Star · 0:07:40
#goal-setting#motivation#micro-goals
Takeaway0:13:22

Anxiety is holding on to what you can't control

The episode closes on a run of maxims from the stage. All growth happens outside your comfort zone, so choose things that make you uncomfortable. The past is history and the future is fiction, so choose your fiction carefully. Anxiety is simply holding on to what you cannot control, which makes letting go the practical instruction. Jasmine turns it into a direct question for listeners.

  • Growth only happens outside the comfort zone
  • The future is fiction you get to choose
  • Anxiety equals gripping the uncontrollable
  • Control the effort, not the outcome

“The past is history and the future is fiction. Choose your fiction carefully.”

Jasmine Star · 0:13:22

“Anxiety is simply holding on to what you can't control.”

Jasmine Star · 0:13:22
#mindset#anxiety#control#quotables