The Risk of Change Is Often Smaller Than the Mind Makes It
Hardy argues that people systematically exaggerate the downside of releasing an old commitment or making a stronger investment. Even when a new hire or strategy fails, the worst realistic outcome may include valuable knowledge and only a temporary setback rather than catastrophe.
- Loss aversion magnifies perceived downside.
- People often assess change against an exaggerated worst case.
- A failed investment can still create knowledge and capability.
- Risk should be compared with the cost of preserving an obsolete system.
“we inflate loss, we inflate the downsides, we inflate the risks”
“It might not work out, but, like, what's the absolute worst case scenario?”