E plus R equals O Decision Loop
Filter events, choose deliberate responses, and debrief the outcomes.
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~ongoing to results
- Steps
- 6
- Confidence
- 98%
The model separates an event, the response to it, and the outcome produced. First, filter events so noise does not consume attention. Next, distinguish a trained automatic reaction from an unskilled emotional reaction. When expertise is deep, intuition may be appropriate; when the issue is unfamiliar or important, pause and activate slower, deliberate thinking. Before responding, define the outcome you actually want, because the obvious emotional action may undermine it. Afterward, debrief whether the response produced that outcome and decide how to handle a similar event next time. The loop builds responsibility without pretending events are controllable and converts isolated decisions into an ongoing learning process.
Origin
Alan Barnard adapted Jack Canfield's E plus R equals O formula into a practical decision model that distinguishes signal from noise, response from reaction, and intended from actual outcomes. Extracted from The Jasmine Star Show.
Core principles
- 01Events are often outside your control, but responses are adjustable.
- 02Noise should not receive the same attention as signal.
- 03Important unfamiliar decisions require deliberate thought.
- 04The desired outcome should shape the response.
- 05Debriefing turns outcomes into better future responses.
How to run it
- 1
Observe the event
Describe what happened without immediately assigning blame or meaning. Recognize which elements are outside your control.
Pro tip Write a one-sentence factual description.
Watch out Interpretation disguised as fact can bias every later step.
- 2
Filter signal from noise
Decide whether the event genuinely requires attention and whether it affects an important goal. Ignore or standardize responses to low-value noise.
Pro tip Ask what happens if you do nothing.
Watch out Responding to every stimulus creates decision fatigue.
- 3
Define the desired outcome
State what you actually want the response to achieve. Distinguish the end from emotional release or a familiar means.
Pro tip Describe the future behavior, result, or relationship you want after the moment passes.
Watch out An undefined outcome makes the loudest emotion the default objective.
- 4
Choose fast or slow thinking
Use trained intuition when you have deep relevant expertise. Otherwise pause, acknowledge uncertainty, and think deliberately.
Pro tip Say, “I don't know; let me think about it,” to create space.
Watch out Do not trust your gut in a domain where you have not built reliable intuition.
- 5
Select the response
Compare available responses by how well they produce the desired outcome. Choose the response rather than merely discharging emotion.
Pro tip Consider both acting and not acting as explicit options.
Watch out Overreaction and underreaction can both arise from overwhelm.
- 6
Debrief the outcome
Review what happened after the response and whether it produced what you wanted. Identify a better response for similar future events.
Pro tip Capture one lesson while the causal chain is still clear.
Watch out Experience without reflection may reinforce the wrong lesson.
In the wild
When children break a vase after being warned not to throw a ball indoors, an angry reaction may damage respect and obscure the lesson. Barnard instead described asking what happened, what should be learned, and what punishment would be fair. That response was selected to produce learning rather than merely express anger.
→ The children participate in understanding the consequence and are more likely to remember the intended lesson.
A leadership team forecasts higher revenue that would require more staff and reduce the profitability percentage. By clarifying that the desired outcome is not revenue alone but a defined profitability level, the leader can reject growth that works against the true objective.
→ The decision aligns operating choices with the intended financial result rather than a misleading intermediate metric.
Common mistakes
Responding to noise
Treating every event as significant consumes capacity and increases decision fatigue.
Trusting an untrained gut
Fast intuition is reliable only when it has been developed through substantial relevant experience and feedback.
Confusing emotional release with the outcome
An angry or defensive response may feel satisfying while undermining learning, trust, or business performance.
Is it for you?
Best for
It is best for leaders and individuals making consequential decisions under stress or emotional pressure.
Not ideal for
It is not ideal as a slow deliberation process during emergencies requiring trained automatic action.
From the transcript
“e plus r equals O.”
“we don't distinguish between noise and signal”
“what do I really want from this?”
From the episode
Make Better Decisions Faster