Impossible-Target Forcing Function
Set a radically ambitious target to expose the one breakthrough path.
- Difficulty
- Advanced
- Time to result
- ~months to results
- Steps
- 6
- Confidence
- 97%
Incremental goals such as a 10% improvement can be reached through many small actions, leaving teams with too many plausible priorities. A target of 10x or 100x sharply reduces the number of credible paths and forces the mind to search for a breakthrough mechanism. After setting the target, ask what would have to be true and identify the one or few moves capable of producing the required magnitude. Even partial success on such a path may outperform complete success against an incremental target. The critical safeguard is to distinguish an inspirational target from a commitment. The target expands thinking; the commitment defines the minimum that must reliably be delivered. Confusing them encourages teams to negotiate the ambition downward.
Origin
Alan Barnard challenged a Genius Network prompt asking entrepreneurs how to improve profitability by 10%. He argued that asking for a 10x or 100x increase would reveal far fewer and more consequential options. Extracted from The Jasmine Star Show.
Core principles
- 01Small percentage targets permit too many mediocre options.
- 02An impossible target forces non-linear thinking.
- 03A few breakthrough paths outperform accumulated marginal gains.
- 04Targets inspire exploration; commitments define minimum delivery.
- 05Partial success on a 10x path can outperform full success on a modest path.
How to run it
- 1
Reject the incremental frame
Identify where a percentage-improvement target is encouraging a long list of minor initiatives. Decide whether the situation requires transformational rather than marginal progress.
Pro tip Count how many plausible answers the current goal produces; too many indicate weak focus.
Watch out Do not use radical targets for routine obligations that demand predictable delivery.
- 2
Set the impossible target
Increase the desired magnitude or shorten the timeline until existing methods clearly cannot succeed. Make the target inspirational and measurable.
Pro tip Use 10x or 100x as a thinking prompt, not an automatic forecast.
Watch out Label the target explicitly so it is not mistaken for a commitment.
- 3
Find the breakthrough path
Ask what one action, model, channel, or structural change could generate the required leap. Discard options that can produce only marginal improvement.
Pro tip Look for changes in leverage, pricing, distribution, technology, or business model.
Watch out Combining many one-percent ideas rarely creates a coherent breakthrough strategy.
- 4
Apply the unless test
State that the target is impossible unless specific enabling conditions become true. Turn those conditions into research and experiments.
Pro tip Focus first on the condition with the highest leverage.
Watch out Do not accept untested assumptions as permanent constraints.
- 5
Separate target and commitment
Record the aspirational target and the minimum promised result as different numbers. Communicate the role of each to the team.
Pro tip Review progress against both measures without lowering the target prematurely.
Watch out Treating the target as a mandatory promise can provoke fear, gaming, and negotiation.
- 6
Concentrate resources
Direct attention and budget toward the few options capable of producing the breakthrough. Stop competing work that cannot contribute meaningfully.
Pro tip Use milestones to test whether the selected path retains 10x potential.
Watch out Do not retain marginal initiatives merely to hedge against discomfort.
In the wild
Entrepreneurs asked to find three ways to improve profitability by 10% can generate many answers across pricing, volume, frequency, and cost reduction. Asked instead for one way to increase profitability tenfold, they must search for a small number of structural opportunities rather than assemble a sprawling task list.
→ The larger target narrows attention to breakthrough options with transformative potential.
An agency seeking 10% growth proposes more outreach and modest price increases. A 10x prompt reveals that the existing labor-intensive model cannot scale, leading the team to explore productized delivery and licensing instead.
→ The team identifies a leveraged business-model change rather than dozens of incremental tasks.
Common mistakes
Turning the target into a threat
If people believe the aspirational target is a mandatory commitment, they may resist it or manipulate assumptions to make it smaller.
Adding marginal ideas together
A collection of small improvements can preserve overload without revealing the one mechanism capable of a breakthrough.
Setting ambition without focus
A large target is useful only when it drives elimination, assumption testing, and concentrated execution.
Is it for you?
Best for
It is best for entrepreneurs seeking transformational growth or a decisive strategic shift.
Not ideal for
It is not ideal for safety-critical commitments, mandatory forecasts, or situations where ambitious targets would be treated as guaranteed promises.
From the transcript
“is there one thing that can increase your profitability by ten x”
“that forces the brain to find that one.”
“Do not confuse a target with a commitment.”
From the episode
Make Better Decisions Faster