The Smaller-Margins Trend Play
Find neglected platform bets, validate demand, and publish before the crowd arrives.
- Difficulty
- Advanced
- Time to result
- ~months to results
- Steps
- 6
- Confidence
- 92%
The Smaller-Margins Trend Play looks for credible opportunities that the majority currently dismisses. Instead of following raw novelty, the strategist studies whether a platform has invested heavily, whether the feature aligns with its incentives, and whether management is likely to improve distribution. Audience polls or lightweight tests then validate format preferences before major production begins. The business publishes consistently while competition and reach costs remain low, accumulating skills, content, and behavioral data. When product integrations or distribution changes support the original thesis, it increases investment quickly. The play is asymmetric because early effort may initially produce modest results but becomes valuable if the platform later directs users toward the format. Diversification limits the downside if the prediction fails.
Origin
Jasmine Star described creating vertical IGTV content before widespread adoption, then gaining substantially more views after Instagram integrated previews into the feed. Extracted from The Jasmine Star Show.
Core principles
- 01Crowded consensus leaves fewer asymmetric opportunities.
- 02Platform investment signals can matter before current adoption.
- 03Audience behavior should validate a directional hypothesis.
- 04Early publishing builds skill and inventory before competition rises.
- 05A strategic bet still needs diversified marketing support.
How to run it
- 1
Scan the neglected margins
Look for credible features, formats, or platforms that most competitors dismiss or underuse. Focus on areas connected to a strong company or behavioral trend.
Pro tip Pay attention when widespread criticism conflicts with significant platform investment.
Watch out Being unpopular does not automatically make an opportunity valuable.
- 2
Read the strategic incentives
Assess why the platform wants the feature to succeed and what resources it has already committed. Form a specific thesis about the likely next product move.
Pro tip Ask how the feature supports retention, advertising, or competitive positioning.
Watch out Do not rely solely on public hype or personal enthusiasm.
- 3
Validate the format
Ask the existing audience how they prefer to consume the proposed content and run small tests. Use behavior as well as stated preferences.
Pro tip Test presentation variables such as vertical versus horizontal video.
Watch out A poll indicates interest, not guaranteed sustained demand.
- 4
Build before the rush
Publish a consistent, bounded series while the format remains uncrowded. Develop production skill and a content inventory even if early reach is modest.
Pro tip Choose a cadence you can maintain without weakening core channels.
Watch out Do not spend the entire marketing budget on an unproven bet.
- 5
Watch for platform confirmation
Monitor integrations, distribution changes, creator tools, and reach. Treat these changes as evidence for or against the original thesis.
Pro tip Record baseline performance so changes are measurable.
Watch out Do not mistake one unusually successful post for structural validation.
- 6
Scale or exit
Increase investment when product changes and audience results align. If the expected support does not emerge, preserve the learning and redirect resources.
Pro tip Define scaling and exit signals before the experiment begins.
Watch out Attachment to being early can keep an invalid bet alive too long.
In the wild
Jasmine saw Instagram's investment in long-form video as evidence that it would continue improving IGTV despite weak early adoption. She polled her audience about video orientation and began creating vertical content in 2018. When Instagram later added feed previews that directed viewers into IGTV, her typical video views increased from roughly 8,000-9,000 to 30,000-35,000.
→ Early preparation allowed her to benefit immediately when the platform expanded distribution.
A B2B founder notices a professional network investing in short educational video while competitors dismiss it. She interviews customers about preferred topics, publishes eight lightweight videos, and tracks qualified profile visits. If the network introduces prominent video recommendations and leads improve, she scales production; otherwise she stops after the trial.
→ The founder gains a controlled chance at early distribution without abandoning proven acquisition channels.
Common mistakes
Confusing novelty with a trend
A new app is not a strategic opportunity unless platform incentives, investment, or audience behavior support continued development.
Waiting for universal proof
Once every competitor recognizes the opportunity, the low-competition advantage may already have disappeared.
Betting the whole business
An emerging channel remains uncertain, so it should be tested alongside a balanced set of marketing assets.
Is it for you?
Best for
It is best for content-led businesses that can afford a measured experiment on an emerging platform or format.
Not ideal for
It is not ideal for teams that need immediate predictable returns or cannot sustain their existing channels during the experiment.
From the transcript
“I like to play in the smaller margins because there's bigger returns there”
“I started making content specifically for IGT V even though nobody was really there.”
“I noticed the pattern”
From the episode
How To Take Amazing Instagram Photos For Your Business