Certainly Uncertain Growth Loop
Take an uncertain step, assess it, and use the evidence to choose again
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~ongoing to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 98%
The growth loop treats uncertainty as a permanent feature of building rather than a temporary defect to eliminate. Instead of waiting to discover the perfect next move, the owner chooses a bounded step that can generate evidence. After acting, they assess whether the result advanced the business, failed, or exposed a new constraint. A useful step can be repeated or expanded; an unhelpful one becomes information for selecting another uncertain step. Remaining indefinitely with a successful tactic eventually creates stasis, so growth requires re-entering the loop. The model changes the emotional meaning of uncertainty: doubt no longer proves the owner is unqualified or off course. It is the recurring “rent” paid for pursuing ownership, innovation, and a larger vision, provided each experiment remains survivable and is honestly assessed.
Origin
Jasmine and her husband recognized uncertainty as the common thread across emails from business owners struggling with partnerships, funding, launches, and leaving employment. They articulated the loop while discussing their own difficult business decisions. Extracted from The Jasmine Star Show.
Core principles
- 01Growth always contains uncertainty
- 02Action produces information that thought alone cannot
- 03Every step must be assessed
- 04A wrong step informs the next experiment
- 05Uncertainty is a cost of ownership, not evidence of failure
How to run it
- 1
Name the uncertainty
State what is unknown and why it matters. Separate the missing information from stories about what the uncertainty supposedly says about you.
Pro tip Frame it as a question that action could help answer.
Watch out Vague anxiety cannot be assessed or tested.
- 2
Choose a bounded step
Select an action that moves toward the objective and can produce useful evidence. Keep the financial, reputational, and operational downside survivable.
Pro tip Prefer reversible experiments when several paths appear plausible.
Watch out Embracing uncertainty does not justify uncontrolled risk.
- 3
Act without full certainty
Take the step using the best information currently available. Accept that confidence may follow action rather than precede it.
Pro tip Set an action deadline to prevent endless research.
Watch out Waiting for complete assurance can disguise avoidance.
- 4
Assess the result
Compare what happened with the intended outcome. Record evidence, surprises, and constraints rather than labeling the entire attempt a success or failure.
Pro tip Decide the assessment criteria before taking the step.
Watch out Do not judge only by immediate emotion or public reaction.
- 5
Adapt and step again
Continue, revise, or replace the action based on what the assessment revealed. Re-enter the loop whenever growth creates a new unknown.
Pro tip Turn perceived failures into explicit operating lessons.
Watch out Remaining in comfortable stasis eventually prevents growth.
In the wild
A creator is uncertain why a course launch underperformed. Rather than concluding the business is broken, the creator tests revised positioning with customer interviews and a smaller workshop, assesses conversions and objections, and uses the evidence to redesign the next launch.
→ Uncertainty becomes a sequence of evidence-producing actions rather than paralysis.
Jasmine retired a multi-seven-figure photography revenue stream while funding a home renovation and an expensive live event. The overlapping commitments created severe fear, but she and her husband reassessed their belief in the project, endured the period, and converted the experience into stricter financial judgment.
→ A perceived business-ending failure became a lesson that changed later fiscal decisions.
Common mistakes
Waiting for the perfect step
Complete certainty is unavailable in a growing business, so waiting for it prevents the evidence-generating action the decision requires.
Taking existential risks
Acceptance of uncertainty should not be confused with betting the entire business on an unbounded experiment.
Skipping assessment
Action without structured review repeats mistakes rather than converting them into learning.
Is it for you?
Best for
It is best for founders and leaders making consequential decisions without complete information.
Not ideal for
It is not ideal for irreversible, catastrophic-risk decisions that require extensive validation before action.
From the transcript
“Our only objective is to take a step and assess was this the best step or not?”
“And if it was not, then we take another step, another uncertain step, and then we assess.”
“It is the cost, it is the rent of being able to build a dream and a business to be uncertain.”
From the episode
Embracing Uncertainty in Your Business
Rachel Roth